Phillies–Braves Game 3: One Night, Everything on the Line

The Phillies and Braves have pushed their National League Wild Card Series to a deciding third game after trading wins. Atlanta took Game 1, 5–3. Philadelphia answered with a 4–3 extra-inning win Wednesday, when Alec Bohm homered in the 10th. Thursday’s game starts at 8 p.m. ET in Atlanta and airs on NBC and Peacock.

Managers have little reason to save an arm

Philadelphia turns to Aaron Nola, who posted a 4.50 ERA across three starts against Atlanta this season. The Phillies also have several starters available in relief, including Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, and rookie Andrew Painter, who threw three scoreless innings in Game 2. That gives manager Don Mattingly options, but the timing will be delicate: a quick hook can protect the game, while an early mismatch can burn through the bullpen.

Atlanta is taking a different route. Left-hander Ray Kerr will open, with Grant Holmes expected to handle the bulk of the work. Kerr has limited left-handed hitters to four hits in 23 at-bats since his season debut in August. That matters against a Phillies top order built around Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, both of whom homered in the eighth inning Wednesday to erase a two-run deficit.

The small details could decide the series

A single elimination game often tempts teams to treat every inning like the ninth. But the first leverage point could arrive before either starter settles in: Kerr against Philadelphia’s left-handed power, followed by the moment Mattingly decides whether Nola has seen enough of Atlanta’s lineup. Atlanta’s opener may buy a favorable matchup; the Phillies’ bench of rested arms may offer more ways to respond later.

Atlanta’s lineup has its own changes, with Drake Baldwin back behind the plate and Mauricio Dubón at shortstop. Edmundo Sosa returns at third base for Philadelphia after leaving Game 2 with a right-leg issue. Both clubs are adjusting on the fly, which makes clean defense and avoiding free baserunners especially valuable.

Kris’s Take

My pick: Phillies 5, Braves 4. I’ll take Philadelphia in a close one because Mattingly has several starter-quality arms he can deploy if Nola runs into trouble, and Wednesday showed the lineup can answer late. That edge only matters if the Phillies manage the matchups well; Atlanta’s home crowd and Kerr’s numbers against lefties make this a real toss-up. It’s a prediction before first pitch, not a reported result.

Sources

Game time, broadcast, starters, lineups, and pitching availability: MLB’s Game 3 preview. Game 2 result and sequence: Reuters, September 30, 2026.